Finance

Cohort ARR Projection

Project ARR across 24 months from monthly new-customer cohorts and a retention curve.

Finance · Cohort ARR

24-month ARR trajectory

Each month of new logos compounds against your retention curve. Watch the build.

As of May 13, 2026
Ending ARR · M24
$2,401,200
Steady-state ARR
$2,401,200
NRR · M12
83.0%
GRR · M12
83.0%
ARR projection
Peak $2,401,200
M1: $120,000M2: $237,600M3: $352,800M4: $465,600M5: $576,000M6: $684,000M7: $789,600M8: $894,000M9: $997,200M10: $1,099,200M11: $1,200,000M12: $1,299,600M13: $1,398,000M14: $1,495,200M15: $1,591,200M16: $1,686,000M17: $1,779,600M18: $1,872,000M19: $1,963,200M20: $2,053,200M21: $2,142,000M22: $2,229,600M23: $2,316,000M24: $2,401,200
M1M6M12M18M24

Cohorts & ACV

Inputs · USD
Curve preset

Retention curve

Annual churn 17.0%
M0 · 100%M12 · 83%M24 · 71%
Scenario · ARR @ M24
aggressive
$2,655,600
base
$2,401,200
conservative
$1,681,200

Cohort waterfall

Each row is a starting cohort. Each column is a calendar month. Cell shading is surviving ARR.

Low Mid High
CohortM1M2M3M4M5M6M7M8M9M10M11M12M13M14M15M16M17M18M19M20M21M22M23M24
C112000011760011520011280011040010800010560010440010320010200010080099600984009720096000948009360092400912009000088800876008640085200
C20120000117600115200112800110400108000105600104400103200102000100800996009840097200960009480093600924009120090000888008760086400
C3001200001176001152001128001104001080001056001044001032001020001008009960098400972009600094800936009240091200900008880087600
C400012000011760011520011280011040010800010560010440010320010200010080099600984009720096000948009360092400912009000088800
C50000120000117600115200112800110400108000105600104400103200102000100800996009840097200960009480093600924009120090000
C6000001200001176001152001128001104001080001056001044001032001020001008009960098400972009600094800936009240091200
C700000012000011760011520011280011040010800010560010440010320010200010080099600984009720096000948009360092400
C80000000120000117600115200112800110400108000105600104400103200102000100800996009840097200960009480093600
C9000000001200001176001152001128001104001080001056001044001032001020001008009960098400972009600094800
C1000000000012000011760011520011280011040010800010560010440010320010200010080099600984009720096000
C110000000000120000117600115200112800110400108000105600104400103200102000100800996009840097200
C12000000000001200001176001152001128001104001080001056001044001032001020001008009960098400
C1300000000000012000011760011520011280011040010800010560010440010320010200010080099600
C140000000000000120000117600115200112800110400108000105600104400103200102000100800
C1500000000000000120000117600115200112800110400108000105600104400103200102000
C16000000000000000120000117600115200112800110400108000105600104400103200
C170000000000000000120000117600115200112800110400108000105600104400
C1800000000000000000120000117600115200112800110400108000105600
C19000000000000000000120000117600115200112800110400108000
C200000000000000000000120000117600115200112800110400
C2100000000000000000000120000117600115200112800
C22000000000000000000000120000117600115200
C230000000000000000000000120000117600
C2400000000000000000000000120000

Monthly trajectory

24 rows
MonthCustomersARRBuild
M0110.0$120,000
M0219.8$237,600
M0329.4$352,800
M0438.8$465,600
M0548.0$576,000
M0657.0$684,000
M0765.8$789,600
M0874.5$894,000
M0983.1$997,200
M1091.6$1,099,200
M11100.0$1,200,000
M12108.3$1,299,600
M13116.5$1,398,000
M14124.6$1,495,200
M15132.6$1,591,200
M16140.5$1,686,000
M17148.3$1,779,600
M18156.0$1,872,000
M19163.6$1,963,200
M20171.1$2,053,200
M21178.5$2,142,000
M22185.8$2,229,600
M23193.0$2,316,000
M24200.1$2,401,200

Summary stats

  • Peak ARR$2,401,200
  • Ending ARR · M24$2,401,200
  • Steady-state ARR$2,401,200
  • Active customers · M24200
  • Total new customers240
  • NRR · M1283.0%
  • GRR · M1283.0%
  • Effective annual churn17.0%

NRR equals GRR here — the model has no expansion ARR. Add upsell/cross-sell to differentiate.

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