Starting in January 2021 with ₺5M (roughly $680,000 at the time), let's track identical portfolios across Istanbul Kadıköy, Antalya Lara, and Bodrum Yalıkavak through April 2026.
Istanbul Kadıköy 2-bed. Bought at $430k at roughly $2,500/sqm. Five years later, $335k at $2,750/sqm. Unit rented full period at ~$1,100/month net after management — call it $66,000 total rental income USD over five years. Total return: sale + rent ≈ $401k vs $430k cost = a $29k USD loss over five years. In TRY terms it looks like a 280% gain; the lira did the rest.
Antalya Lara 2-bed. Bought at $175k at $1,500/sqm. 2026 sits at $175k at $1,450/sqm — essentially flat in USD. But summer short-let operations generated $14k-$18k/year net after agency fees. Five-year income ≈ $80k. Total return: $175k + $80k ≈ $255k vs $175k cost — clean $80k gain, +46% in USD.
Bodrum Yalıkavak 2-bed. $480k at $4,000/sqm in 2021. $520k at $4,200/sqm in 2026 — $40k USD capital gain. Rental income was weaker — limited season, high management costs — call it $30k net over 5 years. Total return: $520k + $30k - $480k = $70k gain, +14.5% USD.
The takeaway: Istanbul's apartment stock under-delivered on capital in USD terms because USD prices didn't move (the lira crash absorbed all the inflation). Antalya's yield model was the real winner — cash flow survived the currency moves. Bodrum preserved capital but yielded less.
This is why the default foreign strategy for 2026 Turkey is Antalya short-let or Istanbul rental with a 7+ year horizon. Both beat Bodrum on cash-on-cash.