Mortgage pricing is never just a copy of the federal funds rate. The 30-year fixed tracks the 10-year Treasury plus a mortgage spread. In a normal year that spread is 1.5-1.8%. It blew out past 3% in 2023, and is only now normalizing toward 2.3%. That spread compression is doing more for affordability in 2026 than anything happening at the FOMC — the Fed can cut and the 30-year fixed can stay flat if the spread doesn't cooperate. Pay attention to MBS demand, not just the dot plot.
Market Insights
The Fed Pivot and the 30-Year Fixed: Where Rates Land in 2026
With the 10-year Treasury oscillating around 4.1% and the Fed in a measured easing cycle, the 30-year fixed has settled near 6.4%. A clear-eyed read of the spread, the jobs print, and where the next leg actually takes affordability.
Market InsightsApril 20, 20269 min