The classic rent-versus-buy calculation has three variables that move: mortgage rate, home price appreciation, and rent growth. In 2021 the answer was always 'buy' — rates were 3%, prices rising 15%, rents rising 10%. In 2026 it's tighter. At 6.4% fixed, 3.5% price appreciation, and 3.1% rent growth, the breakeven pushes out to 7-9 years in most metros. Less than that, rent. More than that, buy. Tax bracket matters — high earners in high-tax states have a better deduction story, but the $40k SALT cap bites.
Strategy
The Buy-vs-Rent Math in 2026: It's Closer Than the Headlines Suggest
At 6.4% mortgage rates and rent growth at 3.1%, the rent-versus-buy breakeven in most metros is now 7-9 years. A clean model — including insurance, property tax, opportunity cost, and equity build — for three city profiles.